Led Zeppelin Houses of the Holy

When Do Bands Peak? (Part 2)

A couple of weeks ago, we looked at when bands peak – I’ve always enjoyed band’s later albums where they are more confident and more diverse. My graphs based on my ratings bore this out – this graph was based on 24 bands, where I’ve covered at least their first 6 albums on this site. The graph showed that overall, bands build up through their second and third albums, before peaking with their fourth and fifth albums, then going into a decline. Not every band fits this profile, but the graph showed this is the overall pattern. The results looked like this:

when-bands-peak

One question I had was whether I favour bands’ 4th and 5th albums, or if they’re actually considered stronger overall. To verify my findings, I looked at the same 24 bands in Rate Your Music (https://rateyourmusic.com/). If you’re unfamiliar with the site, it’s a ratings aggregator, where music fans can rate albums and the site database holds average ratings for each album.

Please note that Rate Your Music rates out of 5, while I rate out of 10, so the scales of the two graphs aren’t comparable. Also, because it aggregates scores, most albums score between about 2.5 and 4.1 out of 5, so it’s not surprising that the graph is flatter and the trends are less pronounced. This is the Rate Your Music scores for the same 24 artists used in the original graph* (see below for the list of artists):

rym-graph.jpg

As you can see, the Rate Your Music results are similar to my results – it’s less pronounced, but the fourth and fifth albums are still the strongest, and there’s a drop off from the 5th to the 6th album, just like on my graph. If there’s a difference, it’s that generally the debut album scores better on Rate Your Music than with me – as noted in the first post, I often find debut albums a little bland, and prefer bands as they become more adventurous and diverse.

24 bands seemed a little low, so I tried adding a “control group” of an extra 10 bands to see if it made a difference. It mainly served to pull the overall ratings down – many of the original 24 bands used are among the most critically acclaimed bands of all time. The line with the extra 10 bands is blue, while the original RYM line is orange. The extra ten bands used are listed at the bottom of the page.

rym-graph2.jpg

The extra ten bands used do show some evidence of the famous sophomore slump, which wasn’t as evident in the original graph  – the bands include a couple from the class of ’77 who had a ill-received second album (XTC and The Jam),  and another couple who hadn’t hit their stride by the time of the second record (Earth, Wind and Fire, Yes). It might be interesting to look at the first three albums of a wider group of bands to see if sophomore slump is quantifiable.

But overall, it looks like bands peak with their fourth and fifth albums – it’s not just a personal preference but an observable trend.

When did your favourite band peak?

* Original 24 Bands Used
The Beatles, The Byrds, Creedence Clearwater Revival, The Decemberists, Eagles, Genesis, The Go-Betweens, King Crimson, Led Zeppelin, The Moody Blues (in this case, I forgot that Days of Future Passed wasn’t their debut, until after I’d run all the numbers and prepared this post, but I think it’s OK to count it as a debut as it feels like the work of a new band….), The New Pornographers, Pearl Jam, Pink Floyd, Prefab Sprout, Queen, Radiohead, Red House Painters, R.E.M., Roxy Music, Split Enz, Steely Dan, Talking Heads, U2, Wilco

** Extra 10 Bands Included in Control Group
The Jam, The Tragically Hip, Earth, Wind and Fire, Echo and the Bunnymen, Phoenix, The Posies, Ween, XTC, Yes, Fairport Convention

22 Comments

    • It’s interesting what the cutoff point is for bands. Feel like solo artists generally stay interesting longer – don’t have to balance the egos of multiple people if you’re a solo act.

      • Yes indeed & The Beatles a classic example with a fairly short span in real terms. The Who lasted longer & yet their best work was within a short time frame. Often The Rolling Stones early albums are very undervalued & Andrew Oldham played a key part. Stadium rock as well as mass open air festivals leave me cold but The Stones have endured. But no original studio work for years since A Bigger Bang? Dylan also very quiet these days but solo artists indeed have less problems and most know when to take a break. Older bands or singers touring in old age has mass appeal but the most exciting vibrant singer I ever saw was Wendy O Williams in Holland. Madonna still appeals to me with her sheer fitness levels like Mick Jagger’s standing to her.

  1. When are you planning to publish your results in a scientific journal??
    While I’m sure one can always find exceptions to the pattern you found, intuitively, it makes a lot of sense to me overall. Most artists who have longevity develop and grow over time.

    • Yes, and because we’re only looking at artists with at least 6 albums, bands that had one big album and never followed it up successfully probably quit before they get to 6 albums. I think the big exception is bands who started in the early 1960s – bands like The Beatles, Stones, Beach Boys made a few basic (and often very good albums because they’re all talented people) but didn’t hit their stride quite a few albums into their career.

  2. This is a great and I think you are on to something here. I was thinking of a couple bands that have enough albums and they fit this people such as Collective Soul, Bon Jovi and even Lep.

  3. Prince really hit his stride with the third album, Dirty Mind, peaked at six, Purple Rain, and stays solid until album 10, Lovesexy. Album 15, Come is the first real dud.
    Metallica hits their stride with #2 Ride the Lightning, then peaks at #3 or 5, (Master of Puppets or the Black Album)depending on whether you prefer the longer or shorter songs.
    All opinions open to debate, of course.

  4. Another splendid post – interesting to see the pattern holds.
    I think it would fit for many of my favourites with 6+ albums with the odd exception. Weezer’s would be off the charts early on and then be up & down and Radiohead would likely shift to the left by 1 album or so!

  5. I see you have departed from the conventional wisdom of the “difficult third album”, with the first being full of good stuff they’ve had a lifetime to write and the second using up what didn’t make it onto the first, plus some filler, while for the third they have to write 10 songs in a hurry.
    Personally, I find people run out of things to say after a few albums (I even gave up on my beloved Neil Young about 20 years ago) and later ones can be rather lame. On the other hand, sensational first albums are also few and far between, with honorable exceptions being Led Zeppelin’s mighty, blues-based debut before they got ideas above their station and The Smiths’ self-titled first, which positively screams its right to be heard.

    • I normally hear about the difficult second album. I might do a first three albums stats thing sometime, on solo artists and bands, and see how that goes.
      I don’t know if it’s totally running out of ideas but also settling down and starting a family etc, and less angst.

    • It would depend on how much material a band has left over after the first album. I read somewhere that The Doors were using songs from their initial songwriting burst into the third album.

  6. I’m still learning a lot about music and artists from the classic eras of music, like the 1950s through the 1990s. It seems like in terms of success and popularity a lot of artists stayed on top or close for 5 year or less. Some peaked within that time, but there are many major exceptions and it’s just an observation. Because music changed so fast early on, artists that were big in the 1950s, or early mid 1960s, seemed to fade out within a few years. What worked for a few years would be out of date within a few years. Artists could put out 5 or 6 albums and have several hits within a couple of years and then fall out of favor. The Dave Clark 5 is 1 example. They either couldn’t or wouldn’t change and stopped having big hits.

    The Beatles changed the whole way along and stayed on top from their 1st album to the end and well beyond. I have read they were actually the biggest selling artist worldwide of the 1990s. Some artists, even 1’s big in the 1980s, who are still popular and famous didn’t really have a whole lot of big hits or albums. Cindy :Lauper really had 2 hit albums and many hit singles, but from what I know wasn’t a hit artist for much longer after her True Colors album.

    This is just how I see things. If you were on top for 5 years, and a few hit albums and had a bunch of hit songs, or even great albums in that time, it seems like that’s pretty impressive and typical.

    Btw, Off Topic: I’m kind of baffled right now. I was on a music website and they listed the top 40 New Wave albums of the 1980s. 1 was Color By Numbers by Culture Club, which is fine. But they said that a critic once said their hit “It’s A Miracle” would have fit in on a Beach Boys album. I don’t know all the Beach Boys songs and albums, but that seems weird to me. Why would they think that? That’s like saying A Tears For Fears song would have fit right in on an album by 1970s pop band Bread!

    Tears For Fears: “Everybody wants’ to rule the world … ”

    Bread: “If a picture paints a 1000 words then why can’t I paint you?”

    Does anybody want to paint Boy George? ?

    • I think you’re right that it’s hard to stay on top for more than five years or so. This is particularly tricky for a band I think. I think you could argue The Rolling Stones managed to stay on top longer – from the mid 1960s until sometime in the 1970s.

      I think it’s easier for solo artists to reinvent themselves – artists like Madonna, Prince, and Taylor Swift have been able to reinvent themselves and stay on top for longer.

      • Thanks, and you’re right. The artists who stay on top do reinvent themselves and change up their music. But any artist like the Rolling Stones who are legends can last for decades as far as being concert draws, having their hits played over and over and also selling records from their back catalogue. But actually being front-page or on top is hard to do for more than a few years. ?

      • Btw, I think Taylor Swift will eventually be a 1st vote rock and roll hall of famer? Do you agree? She’s’ sold something like 200 million records, or close to that. She’s also won the Grammy for album of the year 3 times. So far. And she’s very influential , talented and popular worldwide. I think she deserves to get in the 1st year she’s eligible. ?

        • She deserves it I reckon – I don’t know that anyone else has stayed at the top for so long. Eight consecutive US No. 1 albums over a twelve year period is pretty amazing.

  7. Great ! I love this stuff.

    I agree with your assessment and all of the thoughtful comments from the participants.

    There are control freaks like the amazingly talented Tweedy, and then there are bands who know they already jumped the shark and so give someone else in the band a chance (like Luna – the Sean songs are amongst the best).

    I didn’t know Phoenix had six albums. Great French band. They are no 1 on the alt 18 this week ahead of metric and Arcade fire (both Canadian bands)

    Thanks again!

    • I assume there’s a seventh Phoenix album coming? I love Wolfgang Amadeus Phoenix but need to spend more time with the other stuff.

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Aphoristic Album Reviews is almost entirely written by one person. It features album reviews and blog posts across a growing spectrum of popular music.

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Graham Fyfe has been writing this website since his late teens. Now in his forties, he's been obsessively listening to albums for years. He works as a web editor and plays the piano.

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